Modesto, CA Metro Area Immigration

Population

The Modesto Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) population 1/ increased from 194,506 in 1970 to 514,453 in 2010. That was an increase of 164.5 percent.

The foreign-born (FB) population increased from 9,564 in 1970 to 103,868 in 2010. That was an increase of 986.0 percent. The foreign-born share changed from 4.9 percent to 20.2 percent.

The share of the overall population that was native-born (NB) increased by 122.0 percent.

	Modesto MSA: Population  1970-2010

Sources of Population Change

The primary sources of population change are:

Natural Change [Births minus Deaths or B-D];
Net Domestic Migration [NDM - movement between states]; and
Net International Migration [NIM - movement into and out of the country].
There is also a residual "other" amount that isn't placed in one of those three categories.

The first chart below shows the three population change factors for three periods adjusted for annual average amounts. Natural change (B-D) was the primary factor in added population in all periods.

The second chart shows the same data but with an adjustment to reflect births to immigrants shifted to NIM. In it, NDM replaced B-D as the primary factor adding population in all periods.

	Modesto MSA: Sources of Population Change 1990-2014 		Modesto MSA: Sources of Population Change (Adjusted) 1990-2014

		B-D	NDM	 NIM						B-D	NDM	  NIM	
	90-'99	58.8%	12.8%	28.5%					90-'99	29.0%	12.8%	58.3%
	00-'09	64.3%	13.3%	22.5%					00-'09	23.3%	13.3%	63.4%
	10-'14	75.6%	 neg.	24.4%					10-'14	22.8%	 neg.	77.2%

1/ Stanislaus County.

Links:

MSA Factsheets by state, and alphabetically.

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